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‘No. Modern submarines are very quiet. Our hydro-acoustic sensors detect them only when they approach our coasts. Magnetic anomaly detectors, usually mounted in aircraft, can find only submarines that are near the surface. In short, submarines can hide right up until the very last minute.’

Pauline had approved the China Plan, and she did not see how it could be improved, but it did not guarantee a quick victory. America would win, but millions would die in both countries.

Suddenly Bill Schneider shouted: ‘Missile fired, missile fired!’

‘Oh, no!’ Pauline looked at the screens around the room and saw no sign of it. ‘Where?’

‘Pacific Ocean.’ Speaking into his mouthpiece he said: ‘For Christ’s sake, be more precise!’ Then after a pause: ‘Eastern Pacific, Madam President.’ Speaking into the phone again, he said: ‘Get some camera drones up in the neighbourhood, fast!’

Gus said: ‘Radar on screen three.’

Pauline looked at the screen and saw a graphic showing a red arc or a blue sea. Then the image moved, and on the left of the screen she saw a familiar-looking island.

Bill said: ‘One ballistic missile, that’s all.’

Gus said: ‘Fired from where? It can’t have come from China – we would have seen it half an hour ago.’

Bill said: ‘It must have been launched from a submarine which then immediately submerged.’

Gus said: ‘Here comes the drone picture.’

Pauline looked hard. The island was mostly forest, but in the south was a built-up area, with a large airport and a natural harbour. Much of the coast was a golden ribbon of beaches. She said: ‘Oh, my good God, that’s Honolulu.’

‘They’re bombing Hawaii,’ Chess said with incredulity.

Pauline asked: ‘How far away is the missile?’

Bill answered: ‘One minute to impact.’

‘Christ! Does Hawaii have anti-missile defences?’

‘Yes,’ said Bill, ‘on land and aboard ships in the harbour.’

‘Tell them to fire!’

‘Already told, but the missile is low and fast and hard to hit.’

All the screens now showed different views of Honolulu. It was mid-afternoon in Hawaii. Pauline could see bright-coloured umbrellas in straight rows on Waikiki Beach. It made her want to weep. A big jet was taking off from Honolulu airport, probably packed with homeward-bound holidaymakers who might now escape death by seconds. Battleships and submarines of the US navy were at anchor in Pearl Harbor.

Pearl Harbor, Pauline thought; my God, this has happened before. I don’t think I can bear it.

Bill said: ‘Thirty seconds. Submarine confirmed as Chinese by infra-red satellite surveillance.’

Pauline knew what she had to do. Her heart was full and she could hardly speak. She managed to say: ‘Tell the Pentagon to be ready to execute the China Plan on my word.’

‘Yes, ma’am.’

Gus said quietly: ‘Are you sure?’

‘Not yet,’ said Pauline. ‘If this missile is armed with conventional explosives, we may be able to avoid nuclear war.’

‘But not otherwise.’

‘No.’

‘I agree.’

‘Twenty seconds,’ said Bill.