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Kai assumed Neil wanted to talk about the looming crisis in North Korea. That morning there was another worrying sign: a collision in the Yellow Sea, off the west coast of Korea. It happened to be a clear day in that zone, and there were good-quality satellite photographs.

As always, Kai needed help interpreting the pictures. The vessels were mainly visible by their wakes, but it was clear that the larger one had struck the smaller. Yang Yong, the expert, said that the larger ship was a naval vessel and the smaller a fishing trawler, and he could make a good guess at their nationalities. ‘In that area, the navy ship is almost certainly North Korean,’ he said. ‘It looks very much as if it rammed the trawler, which is probably South Korean.’

Kai agreed. The disputed maritime border between North and South Korean waters was a flashpoint. The line drawn by the United Nations in 1953 had never been accepted by the north, who in 1999 declared a different line, one that gave them more of the rich fishing grounds. It was a classic territorial squabble and frequently led to clashes.

At midday, South Korean TV broadcast a video made by one of the sailors aboard the trawler. It clearly showed the red-and-blue ensign of the North Korean navy flapping in the wind on a ship heading straight for the camera. As it came closer without turning aside, there were cries of fear from the trawler crew. Then there was a loud crash followed by screams, and the film ended. It was dramatic and scary, and within minutes it had gone around the world on the Internet.

Two South Korean sailors had been killed, the newsreader said: one drowned and one struck by flying debris.

Soon afterwards Kai left for the Cadillac Center. In the car he took off his jacket and tie and put on a black Nike puffer jacket, the better to blend in with the other spectators.

The crowd in the arena was mostly Chinese but with a generous sprinkling of other ethnicities. When Kai arrived at his seat, with a couple of cans of Yanjing beer in his hands, Neil was already there, wearing a reefer jacket with a black knitted beanie pulled low over his forehead. The two of them looked like all the other spectators.

‘Thanks,’ said Neil, accepting a can. ‘You got good seats.’

Kai shrugged. ‘We’re the secret police.’ He popped his can and drank.

The Ducks were in their all-white home strip, the Tigers in sky-blue. ‘Looks just like a game in the States,’ said Neil. ‘Even some black players.’

‘They’re Nigerian.’

‘I didn’t know Nigerians played basketball.’

‘They’re very good.’

The game began, and the noise of the crowd became too loud for conversation. The Ducks went ahead in the first quarter, and by half-time they were up 58–43.

In the interval, Kai and Neil put their heads together to talk business. Neil said: ‘What the fuck is going on in North Korea?’

Kai thought for a moment. He had to be careful not to give away any secrets. That said, he believed it was in China’s interest that the Americans should be well informed. Misunderstandings so often led to crises.

‘What’s going on is civil war,’ he said. ‘And the rebels are winning.’

‘I thought so.’

‘That’s why the Supreme Leader is doing stupid things such as ramming a South Korean fishing boat. He’s trying very hard not to look as weak as he is.’

‘Frankly, Kai, we can’t understand why you don’t do something to solve this problem.’

‘Such as?’

‘Intervene with your own military and crush the rebels, for example.’

‘We could do that, but while we’re crushing them they might fire nuclear weapons at Chinese cities. We can’t risk that.’

‘Send your army to Pyongyang and get rid of the Supreme Leader.’

‘Same problem. We would then be at war with the rebels and their nukes.’

‘Let the rebels form a new government.’

‘We think that will probably happen without our intervention.’

‘Doing nothing can be dangerous too.’

‘We know that.’

‘There’s something else. Were you aware that the North Koreans are supporting ISGS terrorists in North Africa?’