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‘Perhaps,’ said the president. ‘But how would we stop the Americans resorting to nuclear weapons?’

‘By offering first an excuse, then a threat.’

‘Explain.’

‘We should tell President Green that the nuclear strike on Seoul was carried out by rogue elements in Korea who are right now being crushed and dispossessed of their nuclear weapons, and no further such atrocities will occur.’

‘But that might not be true.’

‘No. But we can hope. And the statement will buy us time.’

‘And the threat?’

‘An ultimatum to President Green. I suggest the wording: “A nuclear attack by the US on North Korea will be treated as a nuclear attack on China.” It’s similar to what President Kennedy said back in the Sixties. “It shall be the policy of this nation to regard any nuclear missile launched from Cuba against any nation in the Western Hemisphere as an attack by the Soviet Union on the United States, requiring a full retaliatory response upon the Soviet Union.” I think those were his exact words.’ Kai had once written a college essay on the Cuban Missile Crisis.

Chen nodded thoughtfully. ‘What it means is, if you nuke North Korea, you will be nuking us.’

‘Exactly, sir.’

‘It’s not that different from our present policy.’

‘But it makes it explicit. And it may get President Green to hesitate and think again. Meanwhile, we can search for ways to avoid nuclear war.’

‘I think this is a good idea,’ said President Chen. ‘If everyone is agreed, I’ll do it.’

General Huang and Chang Jianjun looked discontented, but no one spoke against the proposal, and it was agreed.

***

Pauline called on the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs. ‘Bill, we have to take away General Pak’s ability to use nuclear bombs on our allies in South Korea – or anywhere the hell else. What are my options?’

‘I see only one, Madam President, and that is a nuclear attack on rebel territory in North Korea, destroying Yeongjeo-dong and every other military base that might have nuclear weapons.’

‘And how do we think Beijing would react to that?’

‘They might see sense,’ Bill said. ‘They don’t want the rebels to use those nukes.’

Gus was sceptical. ‘Alternatively, Bill, they could take the view that we have begun a nuclear war by attacking their closest ally, which obliges them to launch a nuclear attack on the US.’

Pauline said: ‘Let’s make sure we all know exactly what we’re talking about here. Luis, give us a rundown on the likely effects of a Chinese nuclear attack on the United States.’

‘Yes, ma’am.’ The Secretary of Defense had the information at his fingertips. ‘China has about sixty land-based nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching the US. These are use-it-or-lose-it weapons, likely to be destroyed early in a nuclear war, so they would launch them all immediately. In the Pentagon’s last major war game it was assumed that half the ICBMs would be aimed at the ten largest US cities and half at strategic targets such as military bases, ports, airports and telecommunications centres. We would see them coming and deploy anti-missile defences which might take out one in two, at an optimistic estimate.’

‘And how do you see American casualty numbers at this point?’

‘About twenty-five million, Madam President.’

‘Jesus Christ.’

Luis went on: ‘We would immediately launch most of our four hundred ICBMs, rapidly followed by more than a thousand warheads fired from aircraft and submarines. That would leave us with a similar number in reserve, but they would not be needed because by this time we would have disabled the Chinese government’s ability to continue the war. Surrender would follow quickly. In other words, Madam President, we win.’

We win, Pauline thought, with twenty-five million people killed or wounded, and our cities turned into wastelands. ‘God forbid we should ever have such a victory,’ she said with feeling.

One of the screens was showing CNN, and Pauline’s eye was caught by video of familiar Washington streets, still dark but jammed with traffic. ‘What’s going on outside?’ she said. ‘It’s four thirty in the morning – the streets should be almost deserted.’

Jacqueline Brody came up with the answer. ‘People are leaving town. There were some interviews, a few minutes ago, with drivers at stop lights. They think that if there’s a nuclear war, Washington is ground zero.’

‘Where are they going?’