Page 82 of Cry Havoc

“Unbelievable.”

“That hour difference resulted in the South having an hour to prepare for additional attacks after it became clear that this was a large-scale offensive, resulting in the loss of the element of surprise for some targets. It gave the ARVN and the Americans a full hour to alert their forces thatmore attacks were imminent. It also gave them time to recall soldiers on leave for Tet celebrations.”

“And how many of those eighty thousand NVA and Viet Cong troops are dead?”

“Thousands. Possibly tens of thousands.”

“How many tens of thousands?”

“Too early to tell. We must be prepared to accept half.”

“Forty thousand?”

“Yes. Maybe more.”

“Can they recover?”

“The Viet Cong might not, but they were essentially used as shock troops. The NVA can and will recover.”

“And the Americans?”

“Two thousand to four thousand. We will get a more detailed account from our asset at their embassy.”

“Now, get to the part where you tell me how this was not a complete unmitigated disaster for both Hanoi and the GRU.”

“The goal of Tet was to inspire a popular uprising in the South.”

“Yes, leading to a final victory by the North, but that did not happen.”

“True. We overestimated the levels of support in the South. Those were based on intelligence reports from Hanoi. At the same time, we underestimated the military strength of the South and Americans. The South has won most of the battles thus far.”

“But it is not yet over.”

“Fighting continues as we speak, but of those battles that still rage, the South and the Americans will win those too.”

“I am still waiting for the good news.”

“It has only been six days, so I caution you that this might be premature.”

“Continue,” Lavrinenko said, gesturing with his meaty hand that he was eager for any shred of positive information.

“This is the first U.S. war to really be televised. Their civil war had photographs, and the Great Patriotic War had newsreels, but this is different. They are airing this war every night on televisions across America. That gives us an opportunity. Their news programs are not owned by the state like they are here. They are businesses that sell airtime—sell commercials, advertisements—which means they have to show something compelling, something more compelling than their competition. More powerful than AKs and SKSs are photographs and videos transmitted into living rooms across the United States subjectively interpreted by journalists who need to beat their competitors in ratings. While it looks like this will be a tactical victory for the U.S., in reality it’s going to be a strategic defeat, brought to you by their very press corps.”

Lavrinenko leaned back in his chair, contemplating what his deputy had just relayed.

“You really think it is possible that their press will turn this into a strategic victory for Hanoi, and therefore us, by misrepresenting what is happening there, that propaganda could transform this debacle into a victory?”

“I am saying that it is a possibility. We are already seeing the news outlets frame it as a success for the North. It’s almost like they are on our side.”

Lavrinenko grunted.

“Our sources tell us that most of the American and international press rarely leave Saigon, that they live the high life in exclusive hotels,” Penkovsky continued. “They eat, they drink, they sleep around, all in relative safety.”

“Until Tet.”

“That’s right. Until Tet. Up to this point, Saigon was not a war zone. Now, even though most of Saigon was secured quickly, it has shifted their reporting. If Saigon, a place they viewed as a sanctuary, was vulnerable, then the U.S. must be losing. They also feel lied to by the military establishment. Now the relationship is adversarial. We can capitalize on the situation. Regardless of what happens in the rest of the country, the Americanmedia is creating the perception of a defeat not just of the South, but of the United States.”

“The Fourth Power.”