Page 41 of Cry Havoc (Tom Reece #1)
GRU Headquarters
Moscow, Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic
MIKHAIL LAVRINENKO SAT AT his desk in GRU headquarters, his bulky frame hunched over the latest updates and casualty reports from Hanoi. He had not touched his caviar.
“Have you read these?” he asked his deputy.
“Yes, Director.”
Anatoly Penkovsky had not left the building in five days.
He had no one and nothing to go home to.
His office had a couch and there was a locker room with showers on the ground floor.
If he was going to take over as director, he needed to be ready.
Tet had been a test for them all. He had poured over reports all night while his boss slept.
“This is a disaster,” Lavrinenko said.
The GRU had been a principal architect of the Tet Offensive. Its failure could have severe consequences for the man who sat at its helm.
“Perhaps not.”
Penkovsky sat to the director’s right in the leather overstuffed chair. A stack of files and periodicals was on a small table next to him.
“Tell me.”
“It is true the North has suffered a catastrophic military defeat, but they can still, in a way, achieve their objective.”
“How? Is it confirmed that eighty thousand Viet Cong and NVA were involved in the attacks?”
“Yes, Director.”
“And we had the element of surprise? Half of the ARVN was on leave for Tet, correct?”
“That is what we understand. As we know from our source in Saigon, Colonel Phúc Tran was killed before the attacks, so he was never interrogated in Saigon. It also appears that the United States military and its political leadership favored intelligence reports that painted an overly optimistic picture of their progress in Vietnam. CIA warnings of an imminent attack went ignored.”
“Why?”
“We do not know for certain, but we surmise there is an unwillingness on behalf of the current American administration to accept reports unfavorable to the official narrative.”
“I see.”
“There was a problem with the timing, but I assess it did not play an overriding role in the NVA defeat.”
“What was it?”
“Back in August, Hanoi shifted from their customary China Standard Time to Indochina Time. There is an hour difference between the two time zones. Saigon and the South remained on China Standard Time. That meant some units were on China Standard Time and others were on Indochina Time.”
“Unbelievable.”
“That hour difference resulted in the South having an hour to prepare for additional attacks after it became clear that this was a large-scale offensive, resulting in the loss of the element of surprise for some targets. It gave the ARVN and the Americans a full hour to alert their forces that more attacks were imminent. It also gave them time to recall soldiers on leave for Tet celebrations.”
“And how many of those eighty thousand NVA and Viet Cong troops are dead?”
“Thousands. Possibly tens of thousands.”
“How many tens of thousands?”
“Too early to tell. We must be prepared to accept half.”
“Forty thousand?”
“Yes. Maybe more.”
“Can they recover?”
“The Viet Cong might not, but they were essentially used as shock troops. The NVA can and will recover.”
“And the Americans?”
“Two thousand to four thousand. We will get a more detailed account from our asset at their embassy.”
“Now, get to the part where you tell me how this was not a complete unmitigated disaster for both Hanoi and the GRU.”
“The goal of Tet was to inspire a popular uprising in the South.”
“Yes, leading to a final victory by the North, but that did not happen.”
“True. We overestimated the levels of support in the South. Those were based on intelligence reports from Hanoi. At the same time, we underestimated the military strength of the South and Americans. The South has won most of the battles thus far.”
“But it is not yet over.”
“Fighting continues as we speak, but of those battles that still rage, the South and the Americans will win those too.”
“I am still waiting for the good news.”
“It has only been six days, so I caution you that this might be premature.”
“Continue,” Lavrinenko said, gesturing with his meaty hand that he was eager for any shred of positive information.
“This is the first U.S. war to really be televised. Their civil war had photographs, and the Great Patriotic War had newsreels, but this is different. They are airing this war every night on televisions across America. That gives us an opportunity. Their news programs are not owned by the state like they are here. They are businesses that sell airtime—sell commercials, advertisements—which means they have to show something compelling, something more compelling than their competition. More powerful than AKs and SKSs are photographs and videos transmitted into living rooms across the United States subjectively interpreted by journalists who need to beat their competitors in ratings. While it looks like this will be a tactical victory for the U.S., in reality it’s going to be a strategic defeat, brought to you by their very press corps. ”
Lavrinenko leaned back in his chair, contemplating what his deputy had just relayed.
“You really think it is possible that their press will turn this into a strategic victory for Hanoi, and therefore us, by misrepresenting what is happening there, that propaganda could transform this debacle into a victory?”
“I am saying that it is a possibility. We are already seeing the news outlets frame it as a success for the North. It’s almost like they are on our side.”
Lavrinenko grunted.
“Our sources tell us that most of the American and international press rarely leave Saigon, that they live the high life in exclusive hotels,” Penkovsky continued. “They eat, they drink, they sleep around, all in relative safety.”
“Until Tet.”
“That’s right. Until Tet. Up to this point, Saigon was not a war zone.
Now, even though most of Saigon was secured quickly, it has shifted their reporting.
If Saigon, a place they viewed as a sanctuary, was vulnerable, then the U.S.
must be losing. They also feel lied to by the military establishment.
Now the relationship is adversarial. We can capitalize on the situation.
Regardless of what happens in the rest of the country, the American media is creating the perception of a defeat not just of the South, but of the United States. ”
“The Fourth Power.”
“That’s right, Director, Europeans call it the Fourth Power. The Americans call it the Fourth Estate; their press as a check on their other three branches of government. Look at this,” Penkovsky said, handing the director a newspaper from the stack.
“What is it?”
“The New York Times front page from January thirty-first. A photo of a helicopter in the street and the headline ‘Foe Invades U.S. Embassy Saigon.’ The embassy attack by a small element of sappers was not one of our primary targets. It was almost an afterthought, and even though it was not commandeered and occupied, the press and their photos and videos have made it a symbol of Tet. It was a failed attack, but the imagery plastered over televisions and newspapers make it look like a victory for the North.”
“All perception.”
“This is February first,” Penkovsky said, passing across another edition of The New York Times.
“Look at that photo.”
It showed the U.S. Embassy under attack.
“And here is February second.”
The front page showed a photo of a South Vietnamese soldier holding a pistol to the head of a prisoner in the streets of Saigon.
“Who is this?”
“The man holding the gun is General Nguyen Ngoc Loan. He’s the chief of South Vietnam’s national police. He executed the prisoner a moment later. It was caught on film. A man named Eddie Adams with the Associated Press took the photo. He may have turned the tide for us with this picture.”
“This,” Lavrinenko said, “is powerful.”
“If we had infiltrated the press as part of an overall strategy for how to frame Tet in the eyes of the American people, I doubt we would have done as good a job as their media. And the newspapers are nothing compared to the television coverage.”
“What else?”
“Though the North has not achieved their objective—and if these intelligence reports are to be believed, will not achieve them in the days ahead—they have managed to do something more significant: they put a spear in the heart of America. We can take advantage of it. A devastating military defeat for the North can be turned into a psychological victory for us. America’s support for the war has been in a steady decline for years.
Casualties have been rising, and they are no closer to victory.
The people will lose even more trust in their president and in their military following Tet.
The photos of a Vietnam in ruins after all their investment and all the military’s positive press briefings make them all look incompetent. Look at this one,” Penkovsky said.
“What is this?”
“A cartoon, a political cartoon, comparing Westmoreland to Custer. Their press is shaping attitudes. Walter Cronkite is a bit further behind, but even he will mirror the majority of the reporting soon. We are entering a critical phase, Director. The Vietnam War is bleeding America dry.”
“Give me the other side of this perspective.”
“Well, as I said, this is an early analysis, but one report,” Penkovsky said, holding up a file. “This one here, could be problematic.”
“Why?”
“It details a massacre in Hue. The Viet Cong killed twenty-five hundred civilians they termed ‘class enemies.’ If that is picked up by foreign media, it might undercut any political advantage we have.”
“What do you suggest?”
“Luckily it was not Saigon. If it gains traction, it could become a rallying cry for the South. Time will tell, but I believe the press will focus on Saigon and, as the Fourth Estate, they will make their displeasure with their government and military known. A massacre in Hue by the Viet Cong runs counter to that narrative.”
“But we don’t know for certain.”